Olympiacos beat Marseille 1–0. Marseille had 11 shots (5 on target) to Olympiacos' 9 (4), with 56% of the ball against 44%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.6, so Marseille created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Olympiacos beat Marseille 1–0. Marseille had 11 shots (5 on target) to Olympiacos' 9 (4), with 56% of the ball against 44%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.6, so Marseille created the better chances and still lost the game.
Marseille 0–1 Olympiacos, played on 15 Oct 2026 in the Europe: Europa League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Marseille 51%, the draw 25% and Olympiacos 25%.
Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.6, Shots 11–9, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 9–7, Big chances 2–1, Corners 9–1, Saves 3–5, Fouls 15–11, Offsides 3–3, Yellow cards 2–2.
No. It finished 0–1, so Marseille failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.