What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 61%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Marseille should get at least a draw here. They have lost five of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Olympiacos. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Marseille or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Marseille vs Olympiacos?
Bawler's model rates this match: Marseille are favoured (51% win probability vs 25% for Olympiacos, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Olympiacos?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Marseille 1-1 Olympiacos (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.96.
How does Bawler predict Marseille vs Olympiacos?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Marseille 51%, the draw 25% and Olympiacos 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Olympiacos?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.78 and away expected goals 1.18.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Marseille vs Olympiacos?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.96. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).