FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
SK Sturm Graz 1–0 MarseilleMatch recap · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
SK Sturm Graz win
26%
Result
Draw
25%
Marseille win
50%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.8
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.