FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Olympiacos 1–0 Sparta PragueMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Olympiacos or draw at 77%. Bawler had Olympiacos at 51%, the draw at 26% and Sparta Prague at 23%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Olympiacos win
51%
Result
Draw
26%
Sparta Prague win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Olympiacos or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Olympiacos' 0.59 expected-goals advantage underpins the 77% forecast for Olympiacos or draw, as the hosts' superior shot quality makes them clear favorites to avoid defeat at home."