FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Marseille 0–1 OlympiacosMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Marseille or draw at 75%. Bawler had Marseille at 51%, the draw at 25% and Olympiacos at 25%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Marseille win
51%
Draw
25%
Olympiacos win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
Marseille to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.