FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Besiktas 4–1 MarseilleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 17 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Besiktas at 31%, draw at 25%, Marseille at 44%. Against expectation, the match finished 4-1. The model's headline call was Marseille to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Marseille win
44%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.70
Total 3.11
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 69%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"X2 is the high-confidence forecast at 69% because Marseille's 1.70 xG and 44% win probability edge Besiktas despite a narrow overall xG gap, with Mason Greenwood's wing threat accounting for 26% of the visiting attack."