FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Angers 2–5 MarseilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Marseille or draw at 71%. Bawler had Angers at 29%, the draw at 25% and Marseille at 46%. The match finished 2–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
29%
Draw
25%
Marseille win
46%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.7
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 5
Total 7 (+4.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 2.8
From the match itself
The match produced 4.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Marseille or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.