FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Troyes 0–2 MarseilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Marseille or draw at 70%. Bawler had Troyes at 30%, the draw at 24% and Marseille at 46%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Troyes win
30%
Draw
24%
Marseille win
46%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.9
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Marseille or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.