FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Olympiacos 2–1 Jagiellonia BialystokMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Olympiacos at 54%, draw at 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok at 21%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Olympiacos.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Olympiacos win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Bialystok win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.73 – 0.98
Total 2.71
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Olympiacos' 0.75 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability make 1X (home win or draw) the high-confidence forecast at 79%, reflecting the visitor's limited attacking threat despite home-ground intensity."