Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Olympiacos v AC Milan prediction
Olympiacos are favourites on our numbers: 40% to win, against 32% for AC Milan and 28% for a draw. Our predicted score is Olympiacos 1–0 AC Milan, the likeliest Olympiacos win score (10%). Our expected goals are 1.4 for Olympiacos and 1.2 for AC Milan, 2.6 in all. Both teams scoring is 54% and three or more goals comes in at 49%.
Of their last three meetings on our records, Olympiacos have won two, AC Milan one. When they last met, it finished Olympiacos 3–1 Milan, in Dec 2018. On form, Olympiacos have three wins, three draws and no defeats from their last six games, and AC Milan have three wins, no draws and three defeats.
Of the players, Jota Silva of Olympiacos tops our shots forecast at 3.2, if they start. Gonçalo Ramos (AC Milan) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. For cards, Pervis Estupinán (AC Milan) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On shots, our forecast is 15.0 for Olympiacos and 11.6 for AC Milan, with 3.7 and 3.8 on target, and corners at 5.3 to 3.4. So we expect Olympiacos to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick for this game is Over 21.5 Total Shots, Over 5.5 Total Corners and Over 4.5 Total Shots on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 67% chance, which makes the fair price 1/2 (1.49).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Olympiacos · last 6
AC Milan · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Olympiacos or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Olympiacos vs AC Milan?
Bawler's model rates this match: Olympiacos are favoured (40% win probability vs 32% for AC Milan, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Olympiacos vs AC Milan?
Bawler's predicted score is Olympiacos 1-0 AC Milan: the most likely score if Olympiacos win, which is the likeliest result (40%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Olympiacos vs AC Milan?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Olympiacos 40%, the draw 28% and AC Milan 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Olympiacos vs AC Milan?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Olympiacos expecting 1.41 goals and AC Milan 1.24.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Olympiacos vs AC Milan?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 49%.
When are the Olympiacos v AC Milan line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Olympiacos v AC Milan?
Over 21.5 Total Shots (81%), Over 5.5 Total Corners (83%), Over 4.5 Total Shots on Target (84%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 67% chance, a fair price of 1/2 (1.49). 18+, please gamble responsibly.