Bawler's model rates this match: Aston Villa are favoured (65% win probability vs 14% for Hull City, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Hull City 0-2 Aston Villa (10.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.02.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Hull City 14%, the draw 21% and Aston Villa 65%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (52% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.90 and away expected goals 2.12.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.02. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).