FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Chelsea 2–2 Hull CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Chelsea at 80%, draw at 13%, Hull City at 7%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Chelsea to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Chelsea win
80%
Draw
13%
Actual ✓
City win
7%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.91 – 0.78
Total 3.69
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Chelsea's home win forecast rests on a 2.13 expected-goals advantage, with strikers Palmer and Fernández commanding 41% of the team's attacking threat against Hull's 0.77 xG."