FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham ForestMatch recap · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Aston Villa win
47%
Draw
26%
Nottingham Forest win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.