FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham ForestMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Aston Villa at 47%, draw at 26%, Nottingham Forest at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Aston Villa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Villa win
47%
Draw
26%
Forest win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.18
Total 2.81
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Villa's 0.45 xG advantage and 47% win probability make 1X the high-confidence forecast, as Watkins and Rogers lead an attack that should edge Forest's dual-striker threat despite Gibbs-White and Wood's combined creativity."