FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Coventry City 0–1 Hull CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Coventry City
0–1
Hull City win
Hull City

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Coventry City to win at 66%. Bawler had Coventry City at 66%, the draw at 20% and Hull City at 15%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Coventry City win
66%
Draw
20%
Hull City win
15%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Coventry City to win
Pre-match: 66%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"With both sides locked in a title fight six points off the summit and seven games remaining, Coventry's dominant 1.34 xG advantage at home makes a home win the model's 66% call."

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