FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Newcastle United 2–1 Hull CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Newcastle United at 72%, draw at 17%, Hull City at 11%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Newcastle United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
72%
Actual ✓
Draw
17%
City win
11%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.51 – 0.88
Total 3.38
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Newcastle's dominant 2.01 xG advantage and 78% win forecast make a Home Win the model's clear call against a Hull side generating just 0.81 expected goals."