FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Stoke City 12 Hull CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Stoke City
12
Hull City win
Hull City
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Stoke City at 39%, draw at 27%, Hull City at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Stoke City to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
39%
Draw
27%
City win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.481.37
Total 2.85
Actual
12
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost

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