FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Stoke City 1–1 Hull CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Stoke City or draw at 66%. Bawler had Stoke City at 39%, the draw at 27% and Hull City at 34%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Stoke City win
39%
Draw
27%
Result
Hull City win
34%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.9
From the match itself

The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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