FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Brighton & Hove Albion 4–0 Aston VillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brighton & Hove Albion or draw at 72%. Bawler had Brighton & Hove Albion at 46%, the draw at 26% and Aston Villa at 28%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brighton & Hove Albion win
46%
Result
Draw
26%
Aston Villa win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.7 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.