FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Hull City 2–0 Manchester UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hull City at 10%, draw at 17%, Manchester United at 73%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was Manchester United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
10%
Actual ✓
Draw
17%
United win
73%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.85 – 2.50
Total 3.35
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 90%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
1X
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won