FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Hull City 0–0 Aston VillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hull City at 14%, draw at 20%, Aston Villa at 65%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Aston Villa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
14%
Draw
20%
Actual ✓
Villa win
65%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.94 – 2.20
Total 3.14
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 65%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Hull's title bid faces a Villa side defending a Champions League spot with a 2.27 xG advantage, making an Away Win the 66% forecast."