Fiorentina vs Torino prediction — Serie A · Sat 5 Sept · 14:00 UK

Serie A · Sat 5 Sept · 14:00 UK
Fiorentina 51Draw 25Torino 24
Our call before kickoff
76%
Fiorentina or draw
Missed
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–2
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
65%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
57%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
56%

How it finished

Torino beat Fiorentina 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Fiorentina at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Torino 24%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Fiorentina had 14 shots (6 on target) to Torino's 7 (4), with 40% of the ball against 60%. On expected goals it was 1.6 to 0.6, so Fiorentina created the better chances and still lost the game.

FiorentinaFull-time statsTorino
40%Possession60%
1.6Expected goals (xG)0.6
14Shots7
6Shots on target4
10Shots inside box3
2Big chances1
3Corners5
2Saves4
13Fouls9
1Offsides0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callFiorentina or draw 76%Torino won (24% called)
Total goals2.93
Both teams to score57%Yes
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 79%Landed
Second pickFiorentina to win 51%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

FiorentinaTorino
1.8
Goals+0.6
1.1
16.7
Shots+5.3
11.5
5.1
On target+1.1
4.0
5.8
Corners+2.0
3.7
FiorentinaTorino
0.5
Goals+0.2
0.3
7.9
Shots+2.6
5.3
2.3
On target+0.4
1.9
2.7
Corners+1.0
1.8
FiorentinaTorino
1.3
Goals+0.4
0.8
8.8
Shots+2.6
6.2
2.9
On target+0.7
2.2
3.1
Corners+1.1
2.0

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Fiorentina to score83%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Torino to score68%
Under 3.5 goals67%

First half — what we expected

Fiorentina
49%
to score before half-time
Torino
32%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%

FiorentinaTorino
7.91st-half shots5.3
2.31st-half shots on target1.9
2.71st-half corners1.8

First-half chances

62%Chance of 7+ shots30%
40%Chance of 9+ shots13%
86%Chance of 1+ shots on target80%
38%Chance of 3+ shots on target29%
70%Chance of 2+ corners49%
30%Chance of 4+ corners13%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Fiorentina7.98.8
Shots · Torino5.36.2
Shots on target · Fiorentina2.32.9
Shots on target · Torino1.92.2
Corners · Fiorentina2.73.1
Corners · Torino1.82.0
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Fiorentina 1 · Draws 4 · Torino 0
Torino in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Feb 2026Fiorentina 2–2 Torino
Aug 2025Torino 0–0 Fiorentina
Jan 2025Fiorentina 1–1 Torino
Nov 2024Torino 0–1 Fiorentina
Mar 2024Torino 0–0 Fiorentina
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Fiorentina vs Torino?

Torino beat Fiorentina 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Fiorentina at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Torino 24%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Fiorentina had 14 shots (6 on target) to Torino's 7 (4), with 40% of the ball against 60%. On expected goals it was 1.6 to 0.6, so Fiorentina created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Torino?

Fiorentina 1–2 Torino, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Fiorentina 51%, the draw 25% and Torino 24%.

What were the stats in Fiorentina vs Torino?

Full-time: Possession 40%–60%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–0.6, Shots 14–7, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 10–3, Big chances 2–1, Corners 3–5, Saves 2–4, Fouls 13–9, Offsides 1–0.

Did both teams score in Fiorentina vs Torino?

Yes — both Fiorentina and Torino scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Fiorentina vs Torino right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Fiorentina or draw 76%, it finished Torino won (24% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Fiorentina to win 51%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Fiorentina form →Torino form →