Torino beat Fiorentina 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Fiorentina at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Torino 24%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Fiorentina had 14 shots (6 on target) to Torino's 7 (4), with 40% of the ball against 60%. On expected goals it was 1.6 to 0.6, so Fiorentina created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Torino beat Fiorentina 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Fiorentina at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Torino 24%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Fiorentina had 14 shots (6 on target) to Torino's 7 (4), with 40% of the ball against 60%. On expected goals it was 1.6 to 0.6, so Fiorentina created the better chances and still lost the game.
Fiorentina 1–2 Torino, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Fiorentina 51%, the draw 25% and Torino 24%.
Full-time: Possession 40%–60%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–0.6, Shots 14–7, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 10–3, Big chances 2–1, Corners 3–5, Saves 2–4, Fouls 13–9, Offsides 1–0.
Yes — both Fiorentina and Torino scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Fiorentina or draw 76%, it finished Torino won (24% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Fiorentina to win 51%, it finished Missed.