FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Fiorentina 0–3 FrosinoneMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fiorentina at 52%, draw at 25%, Frosinone at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was Fiorentina to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
52%
Draw
25%
Frosinone win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.70 – 1.05
Total 2.75
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Fiorentina's attacking superiority—generating 0.66 more expected goals than their visitor—makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 76% call, with striker Kean accounting for over a quarter of the home side's shot quality."