FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 12 October 2026
Torino 2–1 UdineseMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 12 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Torino or draw at 67%. Bawler had Torino at 41%, the draw at 27% and Udinese at 33%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Torino win
41%
Result
Draw
27%
Udinese win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.