FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Sassuolo 2–1 TorinoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sassuolo at 42%, draw at 27%, Torino at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Sassuolo.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sassuolo win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Torino win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.30
Total 2.81
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Sassuolo's home-field setup projects a narrow xG edge (1.51 vs 1.30) that favors a low-scoring but open contest, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 77% call."