FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Torino 1–2 AC MilanMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AC Milan or draw at 71%. Bawler had Torino at 29%, the draw at 26% and AC Milan at 45%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Torino win
29%
Draw
26%
AC Milan win
45%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.