FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Torino 1–2 AC MilanMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Torino at 29%, draw at 26%, AC Milan at 45%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward AC Milan.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Torino win
29%
Draw
26%
Milan win
45%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.26 – 1.60
Total 2.86
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost