FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Fiorentina 1–2 TorinoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fiorentina at 51%, draw at 25%, Torino at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Fiorentina to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
51%
Draw
25%
Torino win
24%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.76 – 1.15
Total 2.91
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Fiorentina's 0.61 expected-goals edge and Moise Kean's involvement in over a quarter of team chances drive the model's high-confidence forecast for Over 1.5 Goals at 79%."