FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 11 September 2026
Venezia 2–4 FiorentinaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Venezia at 36%, draw at 27%, Fiorentina at 37%. The match ended 2-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Fiorentina.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Venezia win
36%
Draw
27%
Fiorentina win
37%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.40
Total 2.77
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"With Fiorentina sitting outside any active competition and Venezia operating without similar constraints, the model expects a competitive fixture where Moise Kean's 26% of team xG will be tested against a narrow 1.40 xG gap, driving Over 1.5 Goals to 76% as the high-confidence call."