FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 11 September 2026
Venezia 2–4 FiorentinaMatch recap · Friday, 11 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Venezia win
36%
Draw
27%
Fiorentina win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 3.4
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.