FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Genoa 2–1 FiorentinaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Fiorentina or draw at 65%. Bawler had Genoa at 35%, the draw at 27% and Fiorentina at 38%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Genoa win
35%
Result
Draw
27%
Fiorentina win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.