Fenerbahce vs Lyon prediction — Champions League - Qualification · Tue 18 Aug · 20:00 UK

Champions League - Qualification · Tue 18 Aug · 20:00 UK
Fenerbahce 46Draw 27Lyon 27
The call
76%
Over 1.5 goals
2.7
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–1

How it finished

Fenerbahce and Lyon drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Fenerbahce at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Fenerbahce had 12 shots (5 on target) to Lyon's 12 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 0.8.

FenerbahceFull-time statsLyon
51%Possession49%
0.4Expected goals (xG)0.8
12Shots12
5Shots on target5
7Shots inside box5
1Big chances1
3Corners0
4Saves4
13Fouls13
3Offsides1
2Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultFenerbahce 46%Draw (27% called)
Total goals2.72
Both teams to score55%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 76%Landed
Second call1X 73%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Fenerbahce to score79%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals71%
Lyon to score69%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5FEN 0 · D 1 · LYO 0
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

Jan 2025Fenerbahçe 0–0 Lyon
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Fenerbahce vs Lyon?

Fenerbahce and Lyon drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Fenerbahce at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Fenerbahce had 12 shots (5 on target) to Lyon's 12 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 0.8.

What was the final score in Fenerbahce vs Lyon?

Fenerbahce 1–1 Lyon, played on 18 Aug 2026 in the EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification. Bawler's model had gone into it with Fenerbahce 46%, the draw 27% and Lyon 27%.

What were the stats in Fenerbahce vs Lyon?

Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 0.4–0.8, Shots 12–12, Shots on target 5–5, Shots inside box 7–5, Big chances 1–1, Corners 3–0, Saves 4–4, Fouls 13–13, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 2–1.

Did both teams score in Fenerbahce vs Lyon?

Yes — both Fenerbahce and Lyon scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Fenerbahce vs Lyon right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Fenerbahce 46%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said 1X 73%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Süper Lig table →Ligue 1 table →
All fixtures & results →Fenerbahce form →Lyon form →