FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Fenerbahce 1–1 LyonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fenerbahce at 46%, draw at 27%, Lyon at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Fenerbahce to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
46%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Lyon win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.17
Total 2.74
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won