FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Fenerbahce 1–1 LyonMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fenerbahce or draw at 73%. Bawler had Fenerbahce at 46%, the draw at 27% and Lyon at 27%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
46%
Draw
27%
Result
Lyon win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Fenerbahce or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.