FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Genclerbirligi 2–1 FenerbahceMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Genclerbirligi or draw at 67%. Bawler had Genclerbirligi at 34%, the draw at 33% and Fenerbahce at 33%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Genclerbirligi win
34%
Result
Draw
33%
Fenerbahce win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 3.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Fenerbahce to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.