FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Lyon 1–2 FenerbahceMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lyon or draw at 77%. Bawler had Lyon at 53%, the draw at 25% and Fenerbahce at 23%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
53%
Draw
25%
Fenerbahce win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Lyon to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.