FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Lyon 1–2 FenerbahceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lyon at 53%, draw at 25%, Fenerbahce at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Lyon to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
53%
Draw
25%
Fenerbahce win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.80 – 1.11
Total 2.92
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost