FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Fenerbahce 4–2 KonyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Fenerbahce at 71%, draw at 18%, Konyaspor at 11%. The match ended 4-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Fenerbahce.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
71%
Actual ✓
Draw
18%
Konyaspor win
11%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.32 – 0.79
Total 3.11
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 89%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost