FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Fenerbahce 4–2 KonyasporMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fenerbahce to win at 71%. Bawler had Fenerbahce at 71%, the draw at 18% and Konyaspor at 11%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
71%
Result
Draw
18%
Konyaspor win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.8
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Fenerbahce or draw
Pre-match: 89%
Landed
Outside shot
Konyaspor or draw
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.