FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Lyon 1–1 Le Havre ACMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lyon at 59%, draw at 23%, Le Havre AC at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Lyon to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
59%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
AC win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.90 – 0.96
Total 2.86
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Lyon's European ambitions collide with Le Havre's mid-table irrelevance, and the hosts' 1.01 xG advantage underpins a commanding 60% home win forecast."