FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Toulouse 0–2 LyonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Toulouse at 36%, draw at 28%, Lyon at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Toulouse to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Toulouse win
36%
Draw
28%
Lyon win
36%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.30
Total 2.60
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost