FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Toulouse 0–2 LyonMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Toulouse or draw at 64%. Bawler had Toulouse at 36%, the draw at 28% and Lyon at 36%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toulouse win
36%
Draw
28%
Lyon win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.