FT · Europe: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 05 August 2026
Fenerbahce 2–0 SK Sturm GrazMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 05 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fenerbahce at 31%, draw at 40%, SK Sturm Graz at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
40%
Graz win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.68 – 0.64
Total 1.32
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 87% probability because both sides generate just 1.32 combined expected goals—a low-volume script built on Fenerbahçe's marginal 31% win odds."