FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 11 August 2026
SK Sturm Graz 0–1 FenerbahceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 11 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had SK Sturm Graz at 31%, draw at 40%, Fenerbahce at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Graz win
31%
Draw
40%
Fenerbahce win
29%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost