Bawler's model rates this match: Fenerbahce are favoured (56% win probability vs 21% for Besiktas, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Fenerbahce 1-1 Besiktas (10.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.08.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Fenerbahce 56%, the draw 23% and Besiktas 21%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.94 and away expected goals 1.13.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.08. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).