FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Besiktas 3–0 Kauno ZalgirisMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Besiktas at 78%, draw at 15%, Kauno Zalgiris at 7%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Besiktas.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
78%
Actual ✓
Draw
15%
Zalgiris win
7%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.59 – 0.68
Total 3.27
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 93%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost