FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Besiktas 3–0 Kauno ZalgirisMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Besiktas to win at 78%. Bawler had Besiktas at 78%, the draw at 15% and Kauno Zalgiris at 7%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
78%
Result
Draw
15%
Kauno Zalgiris win
7%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 0.7
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Besiktas or draw
Pre-match: 93%
Landed
Outside shot
Kauno Zalgiris or draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.