Netherlands: EredivisieSaturday 29 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Excelsior vSparta Rotterdam

Most likely scoreline
1–1
11% of the time · 3.01 goals expected
Excelsior 46%Draw 29%Sparta Rotterdam 25%
How we get there
ExcelsiorstepSparta Rotterdam
1.76Base xG · rolling 26-match1.25
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.76Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.25

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Excelsior average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (18 competitive matches). Sparta Rotterdam average 4.4 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
4
2
1
9
11
7
3
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
4
6
3
1
4
2
2
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Excelsior fixtures & form →Sparta Rotterdam fixtures & form →

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 17 May 2026, Excelsior have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
17 May 2026Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 ExcelsiorNetherlands: Eredivisie

The model's verdict for this fixture: Excelsior 46% · draw 29% · Sparta Rotterdam 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Excelsior predictions & form →Sparta Rotterdam predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.