FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 2–2 ExcelsiorMatch recap · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
61%
Draw
21%
Result
Excelsior win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.2
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.