FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Friday, 14 August 2026
Telstar 1–3 Sparta RotterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 14 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Telstar at 51%, draw at 27%, Sparta Rotterdam at 22%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Telstar to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Telstar win
51%
Draw
27%
Rotterdam win
22%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won