FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 07 August 2026
SC Cambuur 0–4 ExcelsiorMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 07 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had SC Cambuur at 51%, draw at 28%, Excelsior at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-4. The model's headline call was SC Cambuur to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cambuur win
51%
Draw
28%
Excelsior win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.82 – 1.09
Total 2.91
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Under 2.5 Goals is the play at 82% probability—a combined xG of just 1.50 between these teams projects a low-scoring affair."