What we expected
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model rates this match: NEC Nijmegen are favoured (58% win probability vs 20% for Excelsior, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Excelsior (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.27.
How does Bawler predict NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives NEC Nijmegen 58%, the draw 22% and Excelsior 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.09 and away expected goals 1.18.
Over or under 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.27. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).