FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Excelsior 2–1 Sparta RotterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Excelsior at 47%, draw at 25%, Sparta Rotterdam at 28%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Excelsior.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Excelsior win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Rotterdam win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.77 – 1.33
Total 3.09
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 81%, driven by Excelsior's 0.44 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 3.09 that favors an open match."