FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Excelsior 2–1 Sparta RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Excelsior or draw at 72%. Bawler had Excelsior at 47%, the draw at 25% and Sparta Rotterdam at 28%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Excelsior win
47%
Result
Draw
25%
Sparta Rotterdam win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Excelsior or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 81%, driven by Excelsior's 0.44 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 3.09 that favors an open match."