FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam 3–3 FC UtrechtMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Utrecht or draw at 67%. Bawler had Sparta Rotterdam at 33%, the draw at 27% and FC Utrecht at 40%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sparta Rotterdam win
33%
Draw
27%
Result
FC Utrecht win
40%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.