FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 13 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Sparta RotterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had PSV Eindhoven at 73%, draw at 16%, Sparta Rotterdam at 11%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward PSV Eindhoven.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Eindhoven win
73%
Actual ✓
Draw
16%
Rotterdam win
11%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.68 – 0.98
Total 3.66
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"PSV's home win stands at 73% forecast, powered by a dominant 1.70 xG advantage and De Jong's presence in a front line generating 2.69 expected goals."