FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 04 September 2026
Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 PEC ZwolleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 04 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sparta Rotterdam at 51%, draw at 24%, PEC Zwolle at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Sparta Rotterdam to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rotterdam win
51%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Zwolle win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.83 – 1.24
Total 3.07
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Sparta Rotterdam's 0.60 expected-goal advantage and 51% win probability underpin an 81% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, suggesting both sides will find the net in a match shaped by the hosts' attacking edge."