How it finished
West Bromwich Albion beat Derby County 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave West Bromwich Albion 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Derby County had 13 shots (3 on target) to West Bromwich Albion's 4 (1), with 67% of the ball against 33%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 0.4, so Derby County created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?
West Bromwich Albion beat Derby County 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave West Bromwich Albion 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Derby County had 13 shots (3 on target) to West Bromwich Albion's 4 (1), with 67% of the ball against 33%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 0.4, so Derby County created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?
Derby County 0–1 West Bromwich Albion, played on 09 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 39%, the draw 28% and West Bromwich Albion 33%.
What were the stats in Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?
Full-time: Possession 67%–33%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.4, Shots 13–4, Shots on target 3–1, Shots inside box 7–4, Big chances 3–1, Corners 11–3, Saves 0–3, Fouls 12–9, Offsides 4–4, Yellow cards 0–4, Red cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?
No. It finished 0–1, so Derby County failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Derby County or draw 67%, it finished West Bromwich Albion won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished No.