FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Wednesday, 02 September 2026

West Bromwich Albion 1–1 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 02 September 2026

> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had West Bromwich Albion at 52%, draw at 27%, Charlton Athletic at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was West Bromwich Albion to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Albion win
52%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Athletic win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 0.92
Total 2.49
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost

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