FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–0 West Bromwich AlbionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Wolverhampton Wanderers at 54%, draw at 25%, West Bromwich Albion at 20%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Wolverhampton Wanderers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Wanderers win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Albion win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.73 – 0.97
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Wolves' 0.68 expected-goals edge and 52% win probability underpin the 1X forecast, with Armstrong's striker threat and Mané's creative output positioning the home side to avoid defeat."