FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Middlesbrough 3–1 West Bromwich AlbionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Middlesbrough at 48%, draw at 27%, West Bromwich Albion at 24%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Middlesbrough.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Middlesbrough win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Albion win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.00
Total 2.52
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Middlesbrough's comfort at fourth with nothing to play for faces a West Brom side fighting relegation, yet their 0.52 xG advantage and 72% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals suggests both teams will find the net despite vastly different stakes."